Conventional wisdom dictates that although there are 16 teams in the playoffs, there are maybe only 4 or 5 that have a legitimate chance at winning a title in any given year. At least that’s the conventional wisdom in the NBA. But the NLL is hardly a conventional league. So we set out to see if the NLL follows similar playoff trends as the NBA. In the interest of comparing apples to apples, we examined the same years, 2003 – 2016. (We don’t have full playoff brackets in ’03 and ’04 for the NLL, just the finals results. So for the finals, we’re looking at 2003 – 2016, but for full playoff results, we looked at 2005 – 2016)

1 vs. 8

The 1 vs. 8 matchup is almost always your classic David vs. Goliath matchup. The #1 seed usually comes into the playoffs with 55+ (even 60+) wins while the 8 seed often has more losses than wins. So an 8 seed toppling a 1 seed should be unheard of. And everyone probably remembers the 2007 NBA playoffs when the sports world lost their collective minds as 42 win Golden State Warriors, who hadn’t been to the playoffs in 13 years, defeated the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks. That season, the Mavericks had amassed 67 wins in the regular season and would become only the 2^nd team in NBA history with 65+ wins to not win an NBA title, and the only team ever (and that record stands today) with that many wins to lose in the 1^st round. Since that monumental series in 2007, just two other 8 seeds have defeated a 1 seed. None of these teams, including the ’07 Warriors, made it past the 2^nd round, however.

In the NLL, 8 seeds haven’t fared much better. A total of four 8 seeds in this 12-year span have defeated a top seeded team. And the last time that happened was in 2010. And much like the NBA, the 8 seeds tend to bow out quickly. One notable exception was the Denver Nuggets in 2008 who not only advanced past the 1^st round, but also dispatched the Spurs in round 2. Unfortunately, they were swept in the Western Conference Finals.

So, the unsurprising take-away here is that if you’re an 8 seed, don’t expect to advance past the first round. And if by some unbelievable stroke of luck, you do win your first matchup, you have absolutely no chance of making it to the Finals, so don’t hold your breath.

2 vs. 7

The 2-7 matchup is not a whole lot different from the 1-8, so you wouldn’t expect many upsets. And in the NBA, that has certainly been the case. In fact, in 12 years/24 games, the 7 seed has beaten the 2 seed just one time. In the NLL, however, the upset occurred five times. Still, that equates to an upset happening just 21% of the time. So it doesn’t happen frequently, but the upset has surfaced enough to make things interesting. And to make things even more interesting, we can go back to the 2011 playoffs when the 7^th seeded Washington Wizards exploded into the playoffs with a 4-2 series win over Miami in the first round, a 4-1 win over the 3^rd seed Bucks in the second and clean sweep of the top-seeded Sixers in the Eastern Conference Finals. They wrapped things up with a thrilling 7-game win over the Nuggets to become the lowest seeded team in NLL history to win the championship. Could the Warriors or Bulls become the next 7 seed to make a magical run?

3 vs. 6

When you get into the 3 seed vs. the 6 seed, an upset doesn’t seem entirely outside the realm of possibility. Looking at this year’s matchups, it wouldn’t be completely surprising to see the Lakers (the reigning back-to-back champions) best the Thunder, or the surprisingly good Nets topple the perennial powerhouse that is the Knicks. Nevertheless, it doesn’t happen all that often, as the 3^rd seed has advanced over 70% of the time. However, in the 8 instances where a 6 seed has managed to beat the 3 seed, they advanced to the conference finals four of those times. And twice the 6^th seed not only made it all the way to the championship, but won the whole thing. Unfortunately for the Sixers, they were on the losing end of both of these unlikely feats. So, if we end up with a repeat of the 2015 finals (Lakers vs. Sixers), watch out.

4 vs. 5

This is a matchup that you’d expect to be a toss-up. Often, there’s very little separating the 4^th and 5^th seeds, maybe just a game or two. Though that’s not really the case this year, as the 4^th and 5^th seeds in the West are separated by 5 games, while the Eastern teams have a whopping 9 game difference separating them. Still, logic would suggest that, typically, this could go either way. In the NBA, it does. In fact, since 2005, the 5^th seed in the NBA has beaten the 4^th seed 58% of the time. However, in the NLL it’s a much different story, as the 5^th seed has won just 29% of the time.

Finals  

Since 2003, in the NBA, no team seeded lower than 4th has made it to the finals. And only 1, 2 and 3 seeds have won a championship. More than half of the time, a #1 seed has hoisted the trophy. The NLL is a different story. Though the 1^st seed does win more often than other seeds (5 times in the past 14 years), the 2 – 7 seeds have all stood at the top of the mountain at least once. But the breakdown of winners maybe isn’t quite what you’d expect. For example, the 2 seed and 3 seed have only won a championship one time, while the 4, 5 and 6 seeds have all won twice.

So, heading into the 2017 playoffs, the odds might slightly favor the Bucks or the Spurs. But history has shown that in any given year, just about any team has a shot. Unless you’re an 8 seed. Sorry Rockets and Wizards. But best of luck to the rest of you.