A LOOK BACK AT THE PAST DECADE IN NLL DRAFTS

As the hopes of many of the NLL’s 30 teams rest at least partially upon the outcome of the upcoming 2013 NLL draft, I thought I would take a look at the past decade of NLL drafts to see whether I could shed some light on what to expect.  For many NLL gm’s who seek the fountain of youth above all else, draft day is make or break.  But let’s just see what history tells us.

To help with my analysis I have compiled a table illustrating the end of season 2013 CBS rankings of each player against their NLL’s 1^st rnd draft position by year for the past decade.  The data is colour coded to aid in visualization with green being a high performing player and red being a low performing player.  The colour gradient then flows between these two with yellow being the midpoint.  A blank cell is a player who is no longer in the NLL.  The final column of the table is the average current day rating for each pick over the decade.  (Note, for players like Derrick Rose and Andrew Bogut who have been injured most of this past season, the number reflected is somewhat misleading).

As can be seen from the data there are some general trends however nothing is certain when it comes to draft day.  A top 10 pick is likely to result in a starting level player however each year there is likely to be a Bust.  Whereas towards the later end of the round you are much more likely to end up with a disappointment however there is usually at least one Diamond in the Rough, (DitR).

To create discussion I thought for each year I would highlight a diamond in the rough and a bust.  In some cases there are many candidates however I have chosen one based on considering their draft position expectations vs how they have actually performed to date based upon the CBS ranking. (Note:  In most cases NLL performances have been similar but there are some aberrations).  It is also understood that for recent drafts these assessments may be somewhat premature.

by greenmig