NLL Insider - Nick's Mock Pt.1

by dunadan, updated on Wednesday, June 27 2007, 04:00 am EST

Untitled Document

Nick's Mock Draft 2007 (Pt. 1, picks 1-15) - 27th of June

This year's draft class is considered to be one of the best in years. Unlike the past few drafts, this draft is top-heavy with 2 potential NLL superstars at the top, and good quality players through the top 10 and into the late first round. We are finally seeing the compensation of the rule set by the NBA last year that restricted players declaring from high school. The talent we would normally get straight rom high school, is getting farmed in college. Great news for us GM's!

It's hard to really gauge how much talent is in this draft. While there are more clear cut stars such as Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, there is much more possibility of sleepers with many players being potentially overlooked. The general notion of GM's in this draft is to draft to your needs. But NLL GM's are always full of surprises. As per usual, I'm going to be doing an in-depth mock draft before the NBA draft, then i'll do an updated mock after the NBA draft, right before the NLL draft.

Draft day, one of the biggest anual events in NLL, will be the beginning of new era's for some teams, and a forgettable day for others. Either way, this is history in the making, folks. Here's an idea of who i think could go where come draft day. This is the 4th year i've done a mock for NLL, and it took me a great deal of time time complete, as it requires hours of research and detailed written analysis! (About 7,500 words here!) Enjoy!

#	Team	Prospect	Comments
1	Atlanta	Kevin Durant 6' 10" 215 lbs SF/PF	Of all the years to win the lottery, this is it. This is the big year. However, Atlanta are faced with one of the biggest decisions of their franchise existence. Durant or Oden? Each player will lead their franchises in completely different directions. I'm going to predict Durant at this stage. Greg Oden is almot a consensus #1 pick in the NBA, and will most likely be chosen 1st. Oden is the franchise player that any title contender needs. But Atlanta remember what happened in the 1983 draft when GM's choose big men over wing players, with Hakeem Olajuan and Sam Bowie being taken before a certain player by the name of Michael Jordan. Plus, there is the NBA, and then there is NBA Live. Would you rather have David Robinson or Tracy McGrady in your sim team in NBA Live? One would argue that wing players suit the video games better. In terms of position, Atlanta pretty much suck at everything they do. So whoever they pick out of Oden and Durant will not be based on a positional need, but rather who they perceive as the best talent available. Some will tell you that Durant is the more talented player one out of Oden and Durant, but you can't go past Oden's size and talent. This is a statement i agree with. However, in a video game, the need for a player like Oden isn't as neccesary. So Durant gets the nod based on more talent. Anyway, what we have here are 2 players that are going to eventually be top players in the NBA. Atlanta can't go wrong. But which kind of player do they prefer? They think about Oden, but choose Durant under the assumption that he will be better in NBA Live. Durant has the tools and ability to become one of the scariest sim matchups in all of NLL, in the same way that Rashard Lewis or Dirk Nowitzki is. Except better. He had one of the best ever college freshmen seasons recorded to date. Atlanta will go for Oden if they want the franchise player, they will go for Durant if they want the better sim player. Durant has a tremendous combination of talent, athleticism, physical attributes, and skill for a player his age, but needs to bulk up. He will likely need a season to bulk up before he starts truly dominating. But when he does - look out!
2	Toronto	Greg Oden 7' 0" 257 lbs C	The easiest pick of the entire draft. Not much to say here. Toronto will draft either Kevin Durant and Greg Oden, depending on who Atlanta choses. Toronto are pretty set on the wing, and although they wouldn't exactly be dissapointed if Durant fell to them, their preferred scenario is to draft Oden and fill their desperate need of post presence. Greg Oden would have entered last year's draft straight from high school if it weren't for the NBA's new rule, but a season at college proved beneficial and he is the most sought after young player in the world right now. If a team has any hope of being a contender, drafting a player like Oden is the first step. They think about drafting Brandan Wright or Al Horford, but then they reconsider their drinking habits and swiftly select Oden. The humble Greg Oden is a rare big man talent that comes around once every 10 years. He has a great combination of size, strength, quickness and athleticism that is nearly unparralleled on the NBA level. He has a great body who is NBA-ready, but is also oozing with potential. He instantly becomes one of the best post defenders in the league, with potential to become one of the most dominant post scorers in the league.
3	Denver	Al Horford 6' 10" 246 lbs PF/C	The dust settles in Atlanta and Toronto, and i am left to pick the first player of "the rest" of the players. A sure-fire franchise player will not be available to me at #3, but i hold a pick that could be argued as the equivilent of the first overall pick of any other regular draft. Right now i am dead 50/50 on Brandan Wright and Al Horford. I can't decide. Horford gets the nod in this mock due to the pick making more sense. With key players being Richard Jefferson, Kevin Martin, Devin Harris, Charlie Villanueva, and maybe Rashard Lewis (assuming he doesn't leave), Horford fills a need. Wright does not have the bulk or strength to be competitive in the post currently, and also does not have the perimeter skills to move down to SF. So with my biggest need being at center, Al Horford fits better. Horford is a very solid post player who does a lot of things well. He is a good rebounder and defender, he is strong with good athleticism and quickness for his size, and he is smart with a good motor. His offensive post skills are a bit mechanical, but are improving, and this year he showed us his offensive potential. His ball handling and passing skills for a big man are surprisingly good. He is also a proven winner, being a key player in Florida's back-to-back championship success. Horford will make an immediate impact in his rookie season, but will likely not be anything more than an excellent role player rather than an all star. There is no question that Horford will be a good player in this league, he is a safe pick. On the other hand, Brandan Wright is more intruiging. He has more upside and star potential, but is also riskier with a few questions marks surrounding him, which i will get to in a second. I am faced with a hard decision. I believe Brandan Wright to be the better prospect, but at this stage i think Horford makes more sense. I will likely choose the best talent available though, but i haven't yet decided who that is.
4	Sacramento	Brandan Wright 6' 10" 200 lbs PF	In a similar situation to Toronto, Sacramento grab whoever falls out of Horford and Wright. In Wright they draft a power forward with pogo-stick-esque athleticsm, an excellent wingspan, good quickness, and good offensive talent. He is quite polished for his age, with great footwork and touch. He has a knack for getting good positition in the post, and has developed a pretty lefty baby hook which is near unstoppable. He also has a good basketball IQ and has the potential to become an all star down the road. These strengths make him a fantastic prospect. However, there are red flags next to his name which make his stock drop. At 6'10", he weighs only 200 lbs, which is lighter than some guards in this draft. This will not cut it in the NBA. He will get knocked out of position in the NBA, which limits his offensive arsenal, he will be unable to box out, and he will be a defensive liability. He won't become properly effective until he has bulked up significantly. How many seasons will it take him? He doesn't have the perimeter skills to play on the wing either, so he either has to play PF or not at all. How many years will he be riding the pine? Will it hinder his development? There are also questions about his work ethic. He doesn't seem to have the motor or killer instinct of, say, Kevin Garnett (who he was compared to coming out of high school, but clearly is nothing like, apart from being young, tall, athletic, and skinny). He doesn't seem to play hard enough. Where's the mean streak? He also was expected to measure in at 215 - 220 lbs, but he came in 200 lbs, 10 pounds less than his listed college weight. Did he not work in the gym? Does he not want to work to improve his stock? Drafting Wright can reap huge rewards, but it's very risky and it's hard to say how exactly he will pan out. They think about Yi Jianlian, but decide he's even more of a risk. They may end up with Al Horford if Denver drafts Wright.
5	New York	Yi Jianlian 7' 0" 230 lbs PF/C/possibly SF?	Yi is a mystery international player from China that GM Dunudan is rumoured to be pretty high on. New York doesn't have any glaring specific needs anywhere, but they could use an upgrade at just about every position. With Livingston hurt, and Telfair's career hitting some rocky roads, New York think very seriously about Mike Conley. But decide on Yi. This here pick will be a pivotal point in the draft, as it will likely decide the following picks of the top 10. However, i predict that New York will be hard to predict, heh. In this scenario, i have New York going with Yi. New York have good rebounders and athleticism in the post, and draft a big man with a good shot. Yi is unique in that he is very athletic for a player his size and runs the floor like a guard aswell as having a good jumpshot with range out to 20 feet. He's a decent rebounder and shot blocker due to his size and athleticism, but does not stand out in this area. Yi will be a defensive liability in the NBA to begin with and will need to add more strength, but he will make an impact on offense. He apparently has a good offensive IQ and knows how to pass out of double teams. He also has good ball handling ability for his size and likes to dunk with fury. Yi has been compared to a young Pau Gasol but is the competition in China strong enough? It's hard to tell what kind of player he will be in the NBA, making him a huge risk/reward player. He has the tools to be a great basketball player, but the same could have been said about Tskitishvili. What matters is how he plays in the 5-on-5 in the NLL, which we won't truly know until after he is drafted. Gm Dunudan has been known to be one who relishes the risky picks.
6	Charlotte	Mike Conley 6' 1" 175 lbs PG	The newest franchise in the NBA will likely draft to fill a need. This pick works well for them because i believe their biggest need is also arguably the best talent available in Conley (either him or Brewer anyway). Depending on their belief on whether Ben Gordon is capable of running the show at PG will determine their needs, depends what position they draft at. I don't think they will draft a post player, as they have Darko and Aldridge. They will draft either a SF in Corey Brewer or Jeff Green, but decide to slide Gordon back to his natural position at SG and play Conley at PG. Conley is a young and talented point guard who more commonly known as Greg Oden's sidekick. But he has proven to be much more than a side kick. He is very athletic with great passing and ball handling ability. He has great vision and his assist-to-turnover ratio for a player of his age is very good, which means he wont too many problems with excessive turnovers in the NLL. He is only a freshmen, so he will need time to develop and gain more experience. He also needs to improve his shooting and strength. He has been winning on all levels of basketball bar NBA. People compare him to TJ Ford and a young Chris Paul. Most likely should have stayed another year in college. A very good pick for Charlotte, but with only Martell Webster and Bostjan Nachbar as possible SF starters, don't be shocked if Jeff Green or Corey Brewer is the name called instead.
7	Orlando	Joakim Noah 7' 0"; 223 lbs PF/C	Orlando should be kicking themselves if Charlotte decide on Mike Conley instead of Corey Brewer or Jeff Green, as PG is their most outstanding need. Orlando have never really had that reliable point guard anchor running the show, and Conley would give them that. It's an unfortunate situation for Orlando if they can't get Conley, as the next best 2 point guards in the draft (Acie Law and Jaravis Crittenton), are being reached for at #7. Will they trade down? Will they trade up? How important is drafting a point guard to them? Will they stay put? With Tracy McGrady and JR Smith on the wing, their next biggest need is in the post, with Mutumbo, McDyess and Dale Davis nearing the end of their careers. They will choose between Joakim Noah and Spencer Hawes. Hawes is a freshmen that will need a couple of seasons to develop, and with Tracy McGrady in his prime, they opt for the player who is more ready to make an impact. Joakim Noah is the most loved and hated player in college basketball. He is a natural-born leader, with heart and character. He will motivate others with his tireless drive, motor and work ethic, and of all the players in this draft, will make the biggest impact off the court, having various intangible advantages that don't show up in boxscores. But since this is a video game, and doesn't take these things into account, is he such a valuable prospect? Well, sure. But it makes the gap between Hawes and Noah closer, and makes the decision for Orlando much harder. Noah is a pretty unique player. He doesn't have freakish athleticism, but he has great mobility for a guy who's 7 foot, running the floor almost like a guard, and has a good leap. He has good rebounding skills and defensive presence around the basket, mainly due to his motor and sheer will. He also has an awkward jumpshot that he needs to work on. Right now you might be thinking, that doesn't sound like a top 10 pick to me, but what sets Noah apart is his surprisingly good passing and ball handling abilities, which are excellent for a post player. He also has a good IQ to match. He's also a proven winner, as he, and teammates Al Horford and Corey Brewer won back-to-back championships in the NCAA. Noah doesn't have star potential, but he will make an instant impact and be a key role player for many years in the NBA. Orlando will draft Corey Brewer if they draft for best talent available instead of positional need, or Spencer Hawes, who i will talk about shortly, if they believe him to be the more talented player out of him and Noah.
8	Boston	Corey Brewer 6' 8"; 185 lbs. SF	Boston are in an unfortunate position, as their most pressing need is a point guard. So with Conley more than likely not slipping past Orlando, and Law and Crittenton being slight reaches at #8, they're either going to have to trade up or down for a PG, or draft the best talent available. Corey Brewer is the best talent available, and has a perfect mentor in Bruce Bowen. They think about Jeff Green, as his ability to play a bit of PF aswell as SF is inticing, but decide on Brewer. What sets Brewer apart is his defense. He is the best perimeter defender in college basketball, and has potential to be a lock-down defender in the NBA. He is very athletic, contending in dunk contests in previous years, aswell as quick and long. He has a good mind with good anticipation, unselfish, good attitude, and good work ethic. Brewer is not an offensive liability, but he's not a great offensive player either. He's just solid. He needs to improve his ball handling and other various fundamentals, but his shot from outside is decent (though he struggles with consistency), and his finishing is excellent. He has great body control combined with his athleticism, so he able to convert difficult layups around defenders and draw contact. He's can do a lot things well, just nothing excellently. He's a pretty good rebounder thanks to his leap and length, and not bad post skills either. He needs to bulk up and get stronger also.
9	Detroit	Jeff Green 6' 9" 225 lbs SF/PF	Detroit aren't in any desperate need of a specific position, so here they go for the best talent available. Though, GM Dert has never been one to go by media consensus. Dert thinks about Hawes, Thornton and Julian Wright, but selects Green on the basis of best talent available. Green is an all-round player who is unselfish with great vision, passing and ball handling skills for a guy his size. He is quite athletic and has a feel for the game that can't be taught. His position in the NBA will be at the small forward position, but he also has the ability to play some power forward, as he has good post up skills, body control and reasonable explosiveness. Not a standout scorer, but can score in a variety of ways and is extremely smart. Will likely grab Noah or conley if he is still available.
10	Golden State	Julian Wright 6' 8" 211 lbs SF/PF	With Carlos Boozer and Vince Carter the only players that are sure-fire starters for the team, Golden State will likely opt for best talent available. If they draft a SG, they'll slide Carter to SF. If they draft a PF, they'll slide Boozer to C. It doesn't really matter what position they decide to fill. However, with Maurice Williams, Luke Ridnour, Steve Blake, Damon Stoudamire and Daniel Gibson, they likely won't be selecting a point guard. Golden State will be selecting the best talent available that isn't a point guard. Lucky for them, of the best talent available, there are no point guards. The pool of best talent available in my eyes is between Spencer Hawes, Al Thornton and Julian Wright. In terms of rounding out the starting 5, i predict they'll opt to fill the SF need. This eliminates Hawes from the equation, leaving Al Thornton and Julian Wright. This is hard to predict, but whoever they pick will be based on whether they want more of an 'NBA Ready' or 'Potential pick'. With Al Thornton being the NBA Ready, and Julian Wright being the potential pick. I honestly don't know which direction they'd be more inclined to go. I'm going to make my prediction based on past decisions by GS. Last draft, they selected Mouhamed Sene - a pure potential pick. So Julian Wright it is. Wright is a similar player to Jeff Green. A bit less refined, but a bit more potential. Like Green, Wright is an all round player who is unselfish by nature and also has a feel for the game that can't be taught. He has great physical attributes. He is athletic, has a good frame and wingspan. Has good ball handling and passing skills, along with inside game. He also has a great attitude. Like most younger players, he lacks strength and shooting ability. But apart from this, he has all the tools that you could ask for in your SF. He just needs to put it all together, making him a potential pick.
11	Indiana	Spencer Hawes 7' 0" 244 lbs C	The GM-less Indiana Pacers will be selecting whoever went higher in the NBA draft out of the remaining prospects. I imagine that could be Hawes. Hawes' best ability is his inside scoring. He is one of the most fundamentally sound players in the draft, especially for his age. His inside scoring has been compared to Tim Duncan, however he doesn't have the other stand-out abilities in defending and rebounding that Duncan does. He has a wide array of offensive moves with his back to the basket, and facing up. He is a pretty good rebounder, however, doesn't stand out in this area. The knock against Hawes are his physical attributes. Though he runs the floor well for his size, he lacks good athletisicm and a strong frame, which raises questions about how his game will translate to the NLL. His defensive presence is also lacking. Due to his age and lack of athletisicm and experience, Hawes will take a few years to fully develop. However, Hawes possess the post skills, footwork, touch, IQ, passing and ball handling abilities to one day be an impact player.
12	Utah	Acie Law 6' 3" 186 lbs PG	Utah's biggest need is post presence, however with Hawes and Noah recently taken, drafting a post player here will be a reach. Also, they might be able to address their post need with one of their later picks. What i believe to be the best talent available here in Al Thornton, is the kind of player that Utah DON'T need. Thornton is a SF/PF type, which they already have in Donyell Marshall, Shareef Abdur-rahim and even Brian Scalabrine. So instead of trying to add a starter in the post, Utah aim to bolster their bench by taking someone who can backup, and eventually take over, Andre Miller at point guard. They think about Jaravis Crittenton, but Kobe influences a nba-ready prospect in Acie Law over a "potential" pick in Crittenton. Law is a clutch player, with the ability to both score and handle the point. He loves the ball in his hands in crunch time and usually delivers. His ball handling is excellent and court-vision is improving. He's a creative slasher with good body control and moves around the basket. Can drive to the lane or pull up for the mid-range jumper. Shows good leadership skills. Has three point range, but needs to improve consistency. Doesn't have stand out athleticism, which is what stops him from being a higher regarded pick. Plays good defense when he puts the effort in. He is fundamentally sound and plays the game with savvy. He is unselfish, but can also take it upon himself to score, and shows great composure. Could make Miller expendable, and could take the starting job.
13	Memphis	Al Thornton 6' 7" 221 lbs SF/PF	With no specific glaring needs, GM Deckard will likely draft based on the best talent available. Which is likely going to be Al Thornton (not to be confused with Al Horford). Thornton is a scoring combo forward "tweener" whose greatest assett is his athleticism. He is verstatile and will be a tough matchup at the forward spots due to his quickness. He has a good mid-range shot and range out to three point. He has a high energy level and draws a lot of fouls due to this. He's a great free throw shooter to boot. Stayed all four years in college, and improved drastically every single year. He's a bit on the old side at 23 years of age, but he was a late bloomer in college, suggesting he still has potential to fill. Thornton's fundamentals and feel for the game is a step behind for his age, and often relies on his athleticism in college, which he might not be able to do to an extent in the NLL. Has great hands and is a good inside scorer and finisher. Doesn't have a fantastic IQ, and his assist to turnover ratio is bad, so he will need to improve ball handling if he wants to play more SF. Has potential to be a good defender.
14	Portland	Nick Young 6' 6" 206 lbs SG/SF	The GM-less Portland Trail Blazers will select whoever is taken higher in the NBA draft, and at this stage that is hard to predict. There seems to be a sure-fire top 12 in the NBA draft, so things around this stage things start getting a little hazy. I think it might be between Nick young or Thaddeus Young, or possibly Jaravis Crittenton or Rodney Stuckey. It's pretty hard to say. I'll go with Nick Young, cos i think he might be chosen by NBA Hornets at #13. Nick Young is a scoring shooting guard. He has a great mid-range game and shoots pretty efficiently from all over the floor. He is creative with a variety of perimeter moves and creative finishes. He is fundamentally sound, plus has pretty good athleticism and length to boot. Young can be a good defender when he puts in the effort, and he has the tools to be a good one in the NBA.
15	Minnesota	Thaddeus Young 6' 7" 210 lbs SF/PF	Minnesota has no glaring holes in their roster that need immidiate fixing, and they opt for the best talent available, who i believe to be Thaddeus Young. They are rumoured to be high on Sean Williams, but taking him at 15 is a reach, and there's a chance they might get him with their other pick at #27 anyway. Thaddeus is a young player who is extremely athletic and has great physical attributes. Is quite naturally talented, but at the same time his skills are raw. Doesn't have the ball handling skills you would want from a wing player. Sort of a combo forward. He is a pretty good shooter with range out to three point, and is left handed. Has good hands and can score inside pretty well. Quite raw. A bit soft to bang inside, but pretty good offensive rebounder anyway. Struggles with consistency. Needs to add strength. Has a great attitude and work ethic, and is a top-notch student in class. Mix this with his young age and it suggests he has quite a bit of potential. He could be a scary player if he improve his ball handling and make his shooting more consistent.

See part 2 for picks 16-30.

Written by Nick (den)

NLL Insider - Nick's Mock Pt.1

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