NLL Insider - Nick's Mock Pt.2

by dunadan, updated on Wednesday, June 27 2007, 03:59 am EST

Untitled Document
Nick's Mock Draft 2007 (Pt. 2, picks 16-30)

#	Team	Prospect	Comments
16	Detroit	Derrick Byars 6' 7" 225 lbs SG/SF	Detroit will want to grab a player who they believe will be able come in and contribute right away. Since they have 9th pick, and will be able to grab a good talent there, they don't mind reaching at #16. They are said to be keen on the olders players such as Derrick Byars, Morris Almond, Rudy Fernandez and Tiago Splitter. Personally, i would consider there to be a couple of better prospects available than those guys, but not by a huge margin. The talent from here to #23 - 24 is pretty even, it just depends on what you need/want. When you look at GM Dert's draft history, he seems to go for the guys that are ready to contribute over "potential" picks. Of the older guys, in my mind, it will be hard to choose between Almond and Byars, but here they go for Byars. Derrick Byars is a very "complete" wing player, in that he does a lot of things well, but nothing outstanding. He has an NBA ready body and a tough mentality. He plays the game with savvy and intelligence. He has pretty good athleticism, but not great. He is very fundamental on both sides of the court. Has an adequate handle, but can get careless at times. Has good court-vision, and is an above average passer. Is a good scorer with range out to three point land. Is an adequate rebounder with great body strength for his position. Unselfish almost to a fault. Will help any team succeed, but won't be a star player. Think Shane Battier in terms of impact and potential (not similar game though).
17	Memphis	Jaravis Crittenton 6' 5" 194 lbs PG	Here we have Memphis with the 2nd pick of their three picks in the first round. I think Memphis will stick with the trend of drafting best talent available. But with the talent around this area, it's hard to say who exactly that player will be. It could be any one of four or five guys. To me, the best talent available here could be between Rodney Stuckey and Jaravis Crittenton, and i think they will take Crittenton based on potential alone. Crittenton is a high risk/high reward type player, and of all the teams in the draft in a position to make this gamble, it's Memphis. When you first look at Crittenton, the first obvious advantage that will stand out to you is his height for a point guard. At 6'5", Crittenton already has a height advantage over most players in the NBA at his position. Combine this with his great athleticism and playmaking ability, and you can see why Crittenton is such an intruiging player. What holds his stock from rising is concern based around his inexperience, and turnover rate. He is only a freshmen point guard, and not many freshmen point guards have succeeded in the NBA. Especially with a poor assist to turnover ratio like his. Mike Conley is a freshmen point guard too, but he has an excellent assist to turnover ratio, so he will be fine. How many tall point guard busts have we seen in the NBA? Often GM's drool over the physical attributes and overlook other important factors that makes a point guard successful. For this reason, i believe Crittenton made a mistake by not going back to school to gain more skills/experience. Apart from this, he shows some excellent qualities sought after in point guards. He is unselfish with a good attitude and reportedly good work ethic. He has a good handle, excellent court vision and passing skills. He's a good scorer and shows good shooting touch, but needs to improve his range out to NBA three. Explosive first step with good lateral quickness and defensive potential. Needs to improve decision making, leadership, control and other such naunces of running the point guard position. He is currently very raw, but has potential to be a great point guard in the league. That would be assuming he works hard to improve, which is impossible to predict. Some people compare him to Steve Francis, but it's not hard to see some Jerryl Sasser in him too. He'll either be fantastic or awful. It's anyone's guess. Personally, I can't recall seeing a point guard with a assist to turnover ratio like this succeed in the NBA. He should've stayed in school.
18	Houston	Rodney Stuckey 6' 5" 207 lbs SG/PG	Judging by GM Spree's past draft decisions, he likes to go with proven college players (Redick, Gomes). And there are plenty of players left who fit this bill, so look for Spree to follow this trend and draft a proven player. They also need ANY sort of help they can get on the perimeter. I expect that Houston will take either Rodney Stuckey or Morris Almond. Almond proved himself on a higher college level than Stuckey, which may make Houston think twice. But Almond's game, while good, is somewhat one-dimentional in the same way that JJ Redick, Houston's 2006 first round pick, is. So they go with Stuckey, who is more of a combo guard. Rodney Stuckey is a scorer who has the ability to play both guard positions, similar to Randy Foye. He has good body strength, with good athleticism. People have compared his game to Dywane Wade's, but he doesn't have the quick first step or verticle leap that Wade has. Great at creating offense, and is an effective defender when he gives full effort. The main knock against Stuckey is that he played against weak competition in a weak college conference. Many players have been drafted based on their performance in a weak conference only to find that their game doesn't translate into the NBA properly against tougher competition. (Some players do well however, such as Kevin Martin.) There are some aspects about Stuckey dominating a weak conference that are a good thing and some that are a bad thing. On the bad side, it's hard to really gauge how well he will play against tougher competition. Will he be the same player? On the good side, he managed to score consistently despite being the main focus of the opposing team's defense and being double and triple teamed. He also managed to shoot 50% despite this. He also managed to average 4 APG despite a weak supporting cast.
19	Utah	Tiago Splitter 7' 0" 240 lbs PF/C	Utah can address their post presence need with this pick, and have four players they can choose at this point: Jason Smith, Tiago Splitter, Sean Williams and Josh McRoberts. They think about Jason Smith, but he is too similar to Shareef and they decide they need more of a banger type, which eliminates Josh McRoberts aswell. Sean Williams is one of the best shot blockers in college basketball, but a baffingly poor rebounder. So they opt for the very solid Tiago Splitter. Splitter's main strength is his defense. He is one of the best post defenders in Europe and should be an effective and smart defender in the NBA. He's quite laterally quick and very mobile for his size aswell. Has a good attitude and isn't afraid of contact. He's active on offense and has good hands, but doesn't stand out in this area. Though, he does have potential on the offensive side. Always gives full effort. Not a great rebounder, but a solid one. Very high IQ. Needs to add some upper body strength. Has great experience already.
20	New York	Daequan Cook 6' 5" 203 lbs SG	New york is known for usually going for the best talent available. However, at #20, there's no standout best talent available. It all depends on what you're looking for. Instead, i predict New York might go for the attractive "potential" pick. Cook is young, and it came as a surprise that he came out of college this early. But there is no doubt he has good skills even as a freshmen. He has explosive scoring instinct with great athleticism. Great mid-range game for his age. Has confidence. NBA-Ready body, but is he NBA Ready mentally? Has three point range. Solid ball handling and court vision, but not excellent. He's not a selfish player, but his shot selection can be poor. Needs to improve free throw shooting. Doesn't stand out in any area apart from scoring for the time being. Lacks polish. Will probably take a few years til he starts making an impact. Played in Greg Oden/Mike Conley's shadow in Ohio State. Started his college campaign excellently, finished it horribly. If he were to stay in college, he'd be higher up the draft board next year. Is he being reached for at #20? They think about Smith and McRoberts, but had already drafted Yi at #5. They also think about Morris Almond and Sean Williams.
21	Milwaukee	Jason Smith 7' 0" 233 lbs PF/C	Milwaukee aren't in any desperate trouble positional-wise, apart from maybe the C position. So here they draft (what is probably) the best talent available. Smith is an agile seven footer with intruiging offensive skills. He's quick and pretty athletic for his size, and he is coordinated. He is a good face up player with good mid range game with range extending out to 18-20 feet. He has very good ball handling skills for a player his size, and it's not uncommon to see him try to take his opponent off the dribble or pull up off the dribble for a shot, which is what makes him so intruiging. His rebounding and back to the basket moves have improved greatly over time, but still needs work along with various other post skills. Smith is a late-bloomer and lacks various fundamental skills due to this. Needs to add strength and improve defense. Can get frustrated easily, and doesn't seem to enjoy physical contact. Will take some time to develop in the NBA. Most of his weaknesses are correctable, and his strengths make him a unique player in the NLL. Has a great deal of potential, and don't be suprised to see Smith get taken by Utah or New york first.
22	LA Clippers	Morris Almond 6' 6" 215 lbs SG/SF	With their post situation seemingly in decent shape with Tyrus Thomas, Kenyon Martin, Chris Wilcox and Kendrick Perkins, and their wing players seemingly having their starting positions locked in with James, Hill and Jack, Clippers will look to the draft to get a bench spark. Perimeter help on the bench is what Clippers need most, and Morris Almond will be able to come in and help right away, and eventually come in and start over Hill whenever he retires. Almond is first and foremost a scorer. He has a high IQ and a good jumpshoot out to NBA three. He finishes well do to body strength. Doesn't have breath taking athleticism. Not a great handle of the ball, but adequate. Not a great deal of potential, but he has great intangibles and is pretty NBA-Ready.
23	Dallas	Josh McRoberts 6' 10"; 237 lbs. C	With Mike Dunleavy at PF, Hakim Warrick as backup C and Alonzo Mourning possibly retiring or entering his last year, expect the 2007 champions to address their post presence situation. Here they can choose from Josh McRoberts and Sean Williams. They think about Nick Fazekas, but decide they're reaching for him at #23. They like Williams' athleticism and shot blocking ability but are scared away by his drug use, lack of work ethic, and lack of rebounding. They choose McRoberts on the basis that his game suits their high-octane offense. McRoberts is smart and versatile and can score in a number of ways. Pretty athletic and mobile and is a pretty good finisher around the basket. Good court vision, passing and ball handling skills. Can rack up blocks and blocks sometimes. Good rebounder, but can be a bit soft. Good face up game, but will need to improve back to the basket skills. Many people pegged him to be drafted higher last year, but a dissapointing season saw people question his heart and mental toughness. Doesn't seem to enjoy being the go-to guy, which suggests he'll be nothing more than a complmentary player on the next level. Will draft Jason Smith or Tiago Splitter if one of them falls.
24	Memphis	Rudy Fernandez 6' 6" 172 lbs SG	Are Memphis going to have roster space to accomodate all their rookie picks? They wouldn't mind drafting a player who might stay overseas for a year or two. I have read various things about Tiago Splitter and Rudy Fernandez possibly staying overseas for a year, but likely not. Here, i have them going for Fernandez. Rudy is a good offensive player with a good jumpshot and good athleticism. Pretty good defender. Needs to add a lot of strength.
25	Utah	Sean Williams 6' 10" 230 lbs C	Utah address their big man need again with this pick, and take the controversial Sean Williams. Williams is an extremely athletic player with fantastic shot blocking ability due to athleticism but also natural instincts. Doesn't have much offensive game, but has improved over time adding a nice hook shot and improved back to the basket game. He's also a good finisher with decent touch around the basket. Has the tools to excel, including athleticism, long wingspan, quick hands, anticipation, and a quick 2nd jump. Not a hustler. Should get a lot more rebounds due to his gifts, but simply doesn't, for whatever reason. Can have a mean streak at times, but lacks focus and intensity. His game wold benefit if he improved his offensive game and added some more muscle. Off the court issues hurt his stock. He was kicked off his college team due to repeatedly failing drugs tests. His commitment to basketball is heavily questioned. Has a lot of potential, but it's doubtful he will reach it, as he is a bone-head. Can't deny his abilities though.
26	Cleveland	Marco Belleni 6' 5" 192 lbs SG	Cleveland don't have a specific glaring need here, so they will likely go for the best talent available. I'm not exactly sure who that is here, as the talent starts to drop off after about 25. Young Euro yet mature and experienced. Fantastic shooter, especially for his age. Good athlete. Great scorer. Too skinny.
27	Minnesota	Nick Fazekas 6' 11" 230 lbs PF/C	Minnesota are apparently keen on Sean Williams, so don't expect him to fall past #27, or even #15 if they're REALLY keen, but i doubt that. The draft from about #26 on is really a crapshoot. There's still good talent, but it's pretty even for the next 9 or 10 picks, which makes things hard, and almost unneccesary, to predict. I imagine Minnesota might go for a post player. Nick Fazekas is a finesse post player who produced some of the best college stats of anyone in this class. Very good shooter. He has a very high IQ and is fundamentally sound. Good rebounder. Average physical attributes. His lack of athleticism raise questions about how his game will translate to the NBA. Doesn't have a huge amount of upside. Needs to add strength.
28	Phoenix	Jared Dudley 6' 7" 220 lbs SF/PF	Phoenix aren't in any desperate need to fill a position, so they go for an NBA-Ready player. Jared Dudley is a bit of a tweener between SF and PF, but can flat out play the game. He is one of the smartest players in college basketball. Fundamentally sound and skilled. Smart and efficient scorer and rebounder. Great passer. Excellent intanglibes and leadership skills. Great court vision. Although a great scorer, he's unselfish. Has range out to three point land. Hustles and does the little things needed to win. Great work ethic, but doesn't seem to have much potential. Not very athletic. Smart defender, but will be a defensive liability on the NBA level due to lack of size for full time PF and lack of athleticism and lateral quickness for SF. Not a shot creator.
29	New Jersey	Marcus Williams 6' 7" 205 lbs SG/SF/PG	New Jersey look like they could use a backup shooting guard, with some bench spark abilities. If either one of Morris Almond, Daequan Cook, Rudy Fernandez or Marco Belleni fall, New Jersey will snap them up. They may like to draft Gabe Pruit or Taurean Green as backup PG insurance should Boykins decide to leave, but they do have Damon Jones and Kevin McLoed should that scenario happen. Also In Williams, they have a shooting guard who can also play point guard if needed. He is a versatile scorer with good ball handling ability. Great court awareness and passing ability. Has three point range on his jumper. Not a great athlete. His toughness has been questioned. Poor decision making and shot selection at times.
30	Philadelphia	Gabe Pruitt 6' 4" 170 lbs PG	Philly have expressed interest in moving up the draft, but should they stay put, they will likely go for best talent available. It's hard to say who exactly that will be. That player is possibly Gabe Pruitt. He is a quick and athletic point guard with good height for his position, though he lacks strength. Pretty Smart player with a good understanding of the game. Good scorer. Good defender. Still learning how to become a true point guard, but has shown steady improvement over his 3 college years. Sometimes inconsistent. Has been known to play a bit out of control.

On the bubble: Petteri Koponen, Arron Afflalo, Taurean Green, Glen Davis

NOTE: I will be creating another mock draft with less detailed comments after the NBA Draft. In the meantime, send me a message to my inbox (Denver) regarding any clues as to what your team might do. This is your chance to see a more accurate mock draft, or set a smokescreen. Thanks.

Written by Nick (den).

NLL Insider - Nick's Mock Pt.2

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