I was excited to write about this series because it’s my old team Houston, back in the playoffs and looking really dangerous.  Houston was on an insanely hot streak, going 13-3 since week 17.  This streak included 2 wins against, you guessed it, the San Antonio Spurs.  What are they rewarded with, 91% of GMs think that San Antonio will win the series… Does this make any sense to anyone?  This San Antonio team is not the same team from the 1^st half of the season.  The Spurs have lost their top two centers in Embiid and Bogut for this series, Embiid will be back if the Spurs make it to the Semi-Finals. 

When asked about the starting lineups, the coach of the Spurs said that he was basically going to set it and forget it, and hope it works out.  The Rockets however, have been more known to tinker with their lineup depending on matchups.  This could either hurt or help the Spurs depending on how the series starts.  If they lose a game, will the Spurs consider changing the starters around?  You know that as soon as the Rockets lose a couple, GM Vitticus will change around some starters in hopes of getting better play out of his team. 

Starters:

Spurs:

C – David West

PF – Anthony Davis

SF/PF – Mo Harkless

SG/PG – Tyler Johnson

PG – Mike Conley

The likely MVP of the league in Davis surrounded by a bunch of role players.  Leeroy still refuses to move Davis to center despite having no available options other than ageing power forward David West.  Davis is going to average 30 points and probably 12 rebounds and 2 blocks for the series, but the question is, will it be enough.  Conley is a nice player, but nobody on this team scares you other than Davis. 

Rockets:

C – Hassan Whiteside

PF – Dante Cunningham

SF – DeAndre Liggins

SG – Gordon Hayward

PG – Isaiah Thomas

Whiteside is one of the best centers in the league, but he doesn’t make a huge impact offensively.  He’s likely going to be the leading rebounder in the series.  He can stifle the Spurs defensively, but he’s not a big scorer.  Gordon Hayward is the main scorer for this Rockets team.  They play him at SG because according to the front office, that is where he plays best.  They have scoring machine Isaiah Thomas, but he’s not quite as effective in the NLL where his height is a big limiting factor.  Liggins and Cunningham are kinda meh, they play Liggins for his “defensive” abilities, but he’s not a stopper, just a better than average defender. 

Benches:

The Spurs have the clear advantage with benches in this series with plenty of shooters and wings.  Beverley, Courtney Lee, CJ Miles, Will Barton and Stanley Johnson, are all capable of being a leading 6^th man.  The only issue is the backup bigs.  Alan Williams looks to be the main guy, and he’s only 6’8”.  He has a little bit of Tristan Thompson in him, but he’s still young.  This is a place the Rockets could take advantage.  As far as the Rockets go, the bench is likely centered around Big Al with Waiters out.  Al will likely see the bulk of the touches off the bench.  He will try to take advantage of the lack of depth up front for the Spurs.  The Rockets don’t really have anyone that can guard the plethora of wings off the bench for the Spurs though.  These teams have great bench players, but will look to score in different ways. 

Injuries:

It looks like Al Jefferson should be available for the Rockets as he is available to play in the NBA.  The big injury for the Rockets is Dion Waiters is out for the 1^st round.  Dion out is huge, he was the big acquisition that started the Rockets winning streak.  I would feel more bad for the Rockets except that the Spurs are in just as bad a shape.  Joel Embiid and Andrew Bogut are out, Bogut for the rest of the year.  With no other big man to play alongside AD, this team has been just average.  They have gone 5-6 since week 18, not a great record for a #1 seed.

Storylines:

Isaiah Thomas is recovering from the death of his sister.  He has said he will be available to play all of the games, but the engine that makes this team run needs to have his head in the game.  Everyone is rooting for him and our hearts go out to his family.

As far as for the Spurs, they need to recover some of their early season magic and prove that they can get out of the 1^st round.  They are only going to be getting better next year when they get Embiid back.  They finished 6^th last year, and 1^st this year, so they have already won.  They don’t need to prove anything to anyone.

Key Role Players:

Patrick Beverley of the Spurs is one of the top perimeter defenders in the league.  He’s also a great 3-point shooter.  As the backup shooting guard and point guard for the Spurs, he’s going to see a lot of time guarding both Isaiah Thomas and Gordon Hayward.  He’s 6’1”, Hayward is 6’8”.  This will be a matchup that Houston can take advantage of throughout the series if no adjustments get made.

For Houston, It’s going to be Big Al Jefferson.  Hopefully he’s healthy for them, as he is their best bench option.  Although he has fallen out of rotation in the NBA, he’s still a legit NLL scorer.  With San Antonio already hurting on big man, Big Al should feast on the 2^nd unit of the Spurs.  Look for Al to average over 15 a game in this series, and if he can carry the 2^nd unit of Houston, it might be competitive.

MVP of the series:

I don’t think it’s any surprise that Davis will be the MVP of the series, but that doesn’t mean his team will win.  Gordon Hayward could end up scoring just as much as him, and Whiteside might out defense him.  Whiteside + Hayward = Davis.  When 1 player is going to put up as much stats as the other teams 2 best, you know he’s the MVP.

Prediction:

My initial gut reaction was Spurs in 5, but after looking at all the matchups and really digging into it, I think this series will go longer, possibly 7.  As great as the Rockets have looked recently though, I don’t think they have what it takes to take down the #1 seed.  I’m calling Spurs in 6 for the final answer.